In what now feels like a lifetime ago, there was a stretch of weeks in the not-so-distant past when Christian Wood was duking it out with 17-year veteran Joe Johnson for an NBA paycheck. Yes, that Christian Wood, the man who in a year went from a basketball couch surfer to one of the most intriguing and efficient big men in the NBA.
This offseason, months after becoming a recognizable name with the Pistons, Wood signed a three-year, $41 million contract with the Rockets. It’s a significant upgrade from being picked up off waivers by Detroit a year prior. For most of last season, there was a belief that when Wood officially became one of free agency’s marquee names that he’d re-sign with the Pistons, the franchise that provided him his first real opportunity and was pivoting toward a rebuild. Per sources, there was interest on both sides for most of the offseason.
In the NBA, though, things change quickly.
The decision to part ways has worked out so far for all parties involved. The Pistons instead used their cap space to gamble on Jerami Grant, a career side-kick forward who, with the role as top option in Detroit, has emerged as one of the league’s breakout candidates. And Wood has taken his success story from the Motor City and continued to add pages in Houston.
“It’s a journey,” Wood said during his introductory press conference as a member of the Rockets. “I wouldn’t put it on anybody. It’s a journey that I’ve learned a lot from to get to where I am now. And I wouldn’t ask for any other way, because I know it made me who I am now. It made me have this chip on my shoulder. It made me have this determination to try and be better than everybody I played against on the court.”
In July 2019, Wood signed a non-guaranteed contract with Detroit. After a short but productive stint with the New Orleans Pelicans, the Pistons’ decision-makers identified the then-24-year-old as someone who was worth taking a closer look at. After all, his abilities as a basketball player were always met with high regard. It was his immaturity and lack of professionalism upon entering the league that caused him to play in six NBA cities and China in less than five years.
Wood wasn’t always on time to practice. He didn’t always pay attention to detail. Professionalism, or lack-thereof, was going to be the reason the on-court production might not see the light of day.
“For me, I thought at a young age that my talent was going to take over,” Wood told
The Athletic last season. “I thought I was more talented than everybody. It wasn’t that. I had to get the work aspect down. It wasn’t just about talent all of the time.”
After decisively beating out Johnson for the final 15-man roster spot, Wood started the season coming off the bench for Detroit but was one of the more efficient scorers in the league. His offensive rating of 110.9 was tied for second best on the roster, and his true shooting percentage of 66.2 was 13th in the NBA (min. 18 minutes per game and at least 20 games played) from the start of the regular season to the trade deadline.
At the Feb. 7 trade deadline, the Pistons, who had their playoff aspirations crushed by injuries to Blake Griffin and Luke Kennard, signaled for the first time that they were going to rebuild. The franchise traded cornerstone big man Andre Drummond to the Cavaliers for cap filler. This opened the door for Wood to take on a starting role to finish the season. Teams called Detroit about Wood at the deadline, per sources. His efficient scoring in a limited role intrigued other teams like it did the Pistons. The Celtics and Rockets were two of the teams that were in hot pursuit of Wood, per sources. Detroit, though, wanted to see if the big man could handle more responsibility before having to invest in the coming offseason.
Once Wood became a full-time starter, he took off. Now with a larger role, Wood continued to prove that he was one of the most diverse frontcourt talents in the NBA. From the day after the trade deadline to the moment the NBA was shut down in mid-March due to COVID-19, Wood averaged 22.8 points and 9.9 rebounds while shooting 40 percent from 3 and holding a true-shooting percentage of 65.3.
For a month and some change, Wood was the best player on an NBA team. And while Detroit was destined for a top-10 pick in the lottery, Wood showed that he could be the new franchise cornerstone as it moved in a different direction.
However, as the months passed and the league decided to restart in the Orlando bubble without the Pistons and seven other teams, Detroit made some organizational changes. In June, the Pistons hired Troy Weaver as its new general manager. Weaver spent the last decade as Sam Presti’s right-hand man in Oklahoma City. His vision for the early days of the rebuild was to create a defensive-minded roster equipped with length and versatility. During his early press conferences, Weaver told reporters that Wood was someone of interest for the organization. Detroit had roughly $30 million in cap space to use.
When free agency opened in late November, the Pistons shocked the basketball world by committing $60 million over three years to Grant. Detroit eventually executed a sign-and-trade with the Nuggets — Grant’s previous employer — to make the deal happen. Grant and Weaver have a relationship that goes back to Grant’s high school days in Maryland. Weaver believed that the 26-year-old was the ideal player for the type of roster that he wanted to construct. Additionally, Weaver thought Grant had the potential to be more than just a role player. In hindsight, Weaver’s evaluation and thought process has proved to be more than correct.
During this process, the Pistons also offered Wood a contract, per sources. Detroit wanted him to be part of this retooling, as well. However, there was a specific price in mind. Detroit had Wood’s “Early Bird” rights, which meant that if it were able to sign him to a deal that paid, roughly, $10 million annually, Wood’s salary would only count as $1.7 million against their cap. Anything more would count toward the cap in full. Per sources, Detroit didn’t offer more than the annual amount that it would take for the smallest cap hit. The priority for the Pistons under Weaver was to acquire Grant, who, especially defensively, fits more of the mold of what the revamped front office was looking for.
Wood and his reps then turned their attention elsewhere. The Rockets, who were now under new leadership but still interested in landing Wood’s services, stepped up to the plate. Houston and Detroit worked out a sign-and-trade that was highlighted by Wood going to the Rockets and the Pistons receiving the No. 16 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft.
Last season, as much as Houston emphasized the need to go small for spacing and Russell Westbrook-related reasons, the internal plan was never to be exclusive. There was still a desire to add a skillful big man to the roster. The biggest benefit of small ball is the ability to play five out offensively and while that view has never departed, the Rockets believed that you didn’t need to be small to play that style — granted you have the personnel to do so.
After trading Clint Capela to Atlanta for Robert Covington before the trade deadline, Houston aggressively pursued expanding the deal to add another center in the league-allotted window, sources say. Wood was among the options the Rockets pursued, with the team offering Isaiah Hartenstein and two second-round picks to Detroit, sources say — which Detroit turned down.
When free agency rolled back around, Houston was determined to get the big man they had been keeping tabs on for five years. The coronavirus pandemic has changed a lot of in-person interactions — an underrated aspect of free agency — but that never deterred the Rockets from getting their message across. Internally, Houston saw Wood as the best offensive big man available during the offseason in part due to his versatility as a roller and floor spacer. With the direction the franchise was heading in — at least offensively — being able to do multiple things on the floor was seen as the best way to pressure opposing defenses. His potential and his successful stint post-trade deadline only increased his profile from a Rockets aggression standpoint.
At the beginning of free agency, Houston reached out to Wood and his representation and told him that getting a deal done was a priority. The majority of interactions took place via Zoom, phone calls and even FaceTime.
For Wood, the most important thing for him was talking to Rockets head coach Stephen Silas himself. The two had a relationship that dated back to their time together in Charlotte five years ago, but Wood was much more raw and younger then. Their early conversations centered on Wood’s development. Now, with both of their careers having seen tangible growth, it was a timeline come full circle.
“The old days were more about building habits and what it takes to be a consistent NBA player,” Silas said. “Less about the game and playing, more about the maturity it takes to be an NBA player. Now it’s more about the responsibility of being a starting center, a go-to guy, the anchor of our defense, and all of those things. It’s definitely shifted in a big way. It’s a credit to him because he’s grown in so many different ways to become the player that he is today, but also the professional that he is.”
Wood wanted to hear what Silas thought about the potential fit and what his offense would look like. Coming off the historic year Silas had as a member of the Dallas Mavericks’ staff during the 2019-20 season, Wood was intrigued with the thought of reuniting with Silas.
In those conversations, Silas detailed a plan for Wood in a role similar to Kristaps Porzingis’ in Dallas. There was enough of a sample for Silas to see that Wood could do similar things offensively to Porzingis. Like his Mavericks counterpart, Wood can play the power forward or center position, although he has played the latter for the bulk of his time in Houston this season. Both players are blessed with a unique blend of height, length, and on-court savvy. Porzingis is obviously the more polished and experienced player, but Wood has the capability of reaching that level.
Looking at their per-36 stats from the 2019-20 season, they were nearly identical to one another in most of the categories.
Player | Season | Points | Rebounds | Blocks | 3P% | 2PA |
Christian Wood | 2019-20 | 22 | 10.6 | 1.5 | 38.6 | 10 |
Kristaps Porzingis | 2019-20 | 23.1 | 10.7 | 2.3 | 35.2 | 10.5 |
It’s still early in the year, but it’s been a successful start for Wood’s Rockets tenure, one that is more impressive given the wild and crazy start the team has had in 2020-21. He’s averaging All-Star numbers — 23.5 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game, shooting 36.2 percent from 3 on 4.8 attempts per. Wood is second in roll possession per game and leads all players in points, according to tracking data from NBA.com.
At the beginning of the season, Silas acknowledged that Wood’s defense would be a process. There were some early moments when Wood failed to assert himself in the middle of the floor and his teammates discussed the importance of him becoming a more vocal leader and an enforcer in the paint.
Since the James Harden trade, Wood’s usage has increased to 28.8, and his defensive rating has improved to a stingy 100.3. As Silas has diversified his schemes, Wood has been able to adjust accordingly. The most important part of his defense has been how he performs in Houston’s drop coverage, a tactic that has its benefits but is risky against elite shooters. Wood has to pick his battles, when to show and when to hang back. Where he has excelled as of late is using his length to contest and block shots.
Privately, Wood feels decent about his season so far but he knows there is still room for improvement. He’d like to get more consistent with his outside shooting, although it’s back up to around league average now, as well as get to the free-throw line.
One notable area of growth for Wood has been his confidence. It’s no surprise to see him make a defensive stop on one end, bring the ball down the floor in the same sequence and score.
“I learn every game,” Wood says. “I feel like I’m getting better every game, especially defensively. Coach has that trust in me to bring the ball up the floor and make plays for others and I trust him too. It’s mutual.”
Life for Wood is a bit different now having started the season with Harden and now playing with a Victor Oladipo-John Wall backcourt. But Wood’s determination and optimism has never waned, only increased. Against the Suns on Wednesday night, Wood sustained a right ankle injury and looked questionable to return for the second half. The team medics advised against Wood playing but he couldn’t leave his teammates on the floor so he returned, pain and all.
“I was hurting the whole second half,” Wood said after the game. “They told me actually not to go in and play but I felt like my team needed me. My team needed to win this game. So, I have to sacrifice for my team. Whether it’s my body or shots or points or anything like that, I feel like my team needs me on the floor. That’s one of the reasons I came back out for the second half.”
Wood is part of a team’s future. He’s one of the guys. Much of Houston’s success in the coming years will depend on his development and sustained play as a rising star in the NBA.
It’s a far cry from where Wood was just even a summer ago.
submitted by Tier 1: Max guys
Nobody.
Tier 2: More than MLE, less than Max
Hassan Whiteside — $17,200,380 Whiteside is an interesting case because he’s clearly a starting-caliber center on talent, but his defensive disinterest and stat-seeking reputation make him less popular in front offices. He’s also 31, which will likely limit his traction on any kind of long-term deal.
It’s easy to focus too much on the weaknesses and ignore some of the huge strengths. Whiteside shot 62.1 percent and led the league in blocks; a year earlier he led it in Rebound Rate. Few other bigs control the interior as well as he does, and those that do generally cost twice as much if they’re attainable at all.
That said, his lack of passing or long-range shooting ability can gum up an offense if his catches aren’t near the basket, and his presence basically requires defenses to play a drop coverage that keeps him near the rim.
What he is, in other words, is the perfect stopgap starter — just like he was for Portland this past season. There isn’t a lot of cap room to chase centers this summer, so he could end up back with the Blazers on a one-year deal, but I’m guessing some center-needy team (Charlotte? Detroit?) finds enough change under the cushions to pay him in the $15 million ballpark for a year or two.
Christian Wood — $15,830,309 What a difference a year makes. Wood was cut by the Pelicans a year ago; now he’s arguably the best free-agent center on the market. While his projected value for next season is lower than Whiteside’s, he’s also six years younger and thus much more likely to command a lucrative multi-year deal. It’s easy to sniff that he was playing in meaningless games for a team going nowhere, but that didn’t stop Wood from putting up big numbers at both ends
— both at 4 and 5, and both as a reserve and a starter.
It’s hard to dismiss his season as a fluke as well. Wood’s previous brief snippets of NBA minutes had been nearly as productive, and he dominated the G League during his frequent journeys to the minors. The question isn’t how he was so good, it’s what the hell took so long for an NBA team to start playing him.
At 25, he’s in perfect position to cash in, but alas it’s in a market thin on cap space and not hungry for centers. One other factor working against him is that the Pistons would greatly prefer to keep his first-year salary below $10 million, which would enable Detroit to use “Early Bird” rights and a minuscule cap hold of $1.7 million to retain him and leave $30 million for its other free-agent pursuits.
Even at a higher salary, a return to the Pistons still makes the most sense, but I could see a rebuilding Charlotte team also bidding up his price.
Andre Drummond (PO), Cleveland — $14,906,274 Drummond has a player option for $28 million, and there isn’t any great incentive for the Cavs to push him to opt-out and sign a longer deal for lower dollars. Drummond is a phenomenal rebounder and has some playmaking skill from the elbows, but overall grades out as a mid-tier starting center. This market is going to be so harsh for veteran centers that he might not get more than the midlevel if he opts out, and he can likely do much better a year from now.
Jakob Poeltl (R), San Antonio — $13,166,442 Poeltl is a traditional, unsexy center and that may cap his market at the midlevel exception, especially since the Spurs can match any offer. His lack of floor spacing capability and iffy mobility above the 3-point line conspire against him in the pace-and-space era.
But within his role, he’s really good. For a big lug, he’s actually pretty nimble, blocking shots around the rim, positioning himself well in drop coverages and dominating on the glass. Offensively it’s a similar story, as he can’t shoot and has a pretty blah post game, but combats that with a good feel, hard screens, and solid finishing around the basket.
The 25-year-old Austrian may not progress much beyond this level, but it’s pretty easy to see him as the Spurs’ starting center once LaMarcus Aldridge moves on. At anything in the $10 million range, he’s worth it.
Derrick Favors — $12,652,855 I’m guessing Favors won’t get this kind of money because of all the concerns about his knees, but he has been durable the past three seasons and posted a massive 21.4 Rebound Rate last season.
Of equal or greater concern might be his inability to present an offensive threat. He lacks the freight train rim runs of Poeltl and the vertical ability of Wood, and instead is mostly a humdrum short-hook and 12-foot pick-and-pop guy. Favors actually makes those shots at a halfway decent clip, but it’s just not something that scares an opposing defense.
That said, Favors remains a quietly productive player who would either be one of the best backup centers in the league or a good stopgap starter. That may or may not be in New Orleans, depending on the Pelicans’ other plans, but they can re-sign him without dipping into exception money and have plenty of room below the tax line to fit him in.
Tier 3: Mid-level guys
Kelly Olynyk (PO), Miami — $9,806,750 Olynyk has a player option for $12.6 million that he will likely pick up, as he’s 29 years old and viewed by most as an MLE-worthy player who can serve as a good third big. Theoretically, he could opt out to sign a long deal now, but he’s almost certainly better off taking his one-year payday and hitting the market next year when more money is available.
Montrezl Harrell — $8,816,566 This feels low, right? I strongly suspect Harrell gets the full MLE, at the absolute least, especially since he’s not an age issue at 26.
BORD$ may weigh Harrell’s playoff performance too heavily against him, but his position is a factor, too. Centers automatically have a much higher bar to clear statistically to differentiate themselves from the pack, as the replacement level for 5s is significantly higher. (Look at all the centers near the end of this list if you don’t believe me).
In terms of his real-life market, Harrell won the Sixth Man award while playing for one of the league’s best teams, but remains a tricky piece to fit in on a starter’s money. The offense is potent (31.7 points per 100 on 58.0 percent shooting is pretty ridiculous), but he’s not a shooter, so if he isn’t involved in the pick-and-roll game he can impact spacing. As with the other centers above, the lack of cap space teams and flimsy market for bigs will also conspire against him this offseason.
As far as this specific rating, Harrell gets dinged as a negative defender who is both undersized and not notably mobile. Harrell has the worst defensive PI-PM of any center whose name doesn’t end in “elicio,” dragging down his BORG to the point that his elite offense could only do so much to improve his valuation.
Tier 4: Less than MLE, more than minimum
Nerlens Noel — $6,511,224 Noel may have trouble getting to this number because of perceptions about his commitment level, but he was really good in OKC this year. In the playoffs against Houston, he showed himself to be far more switchable and versatile against the Rockets’ unique schemes than starter Steven Adams.
While Noel’s overall offensive limitations are pretty severe
— the dunk is basically his only shot
— he easily could play a more prominent role in a switch-heavy scheme that needs a rim-runner. He’s also 26, so a two-year deal would guarantee a team the sweet spot of his career.
Marc Gasol — $5,953,626 Gasol’s valuation here is understandable in light of the fact that he’s 36 and his offensive game mostly dried up in 2019-20, scoring just 13.6 points per 100 possessions. He’s a good passer who can camp above the 3-point line (38.5 percent last season) and keep the lane open for others, but is no longer a big threat around the basket.
However, contending teams might put a bigger price tag on him because his defensive game scales up so well to a playoff environment. He’s still one of the league’s best low-post defenders (important if, say, Joel Embiid is a potential opponent) and remains mobile and savvy enough to play any coverage scheme. Even at 35, Gasol’s defensive metrics were near the top of the league at this position.
JaVale McGee (PO), Lakers — $5,753,491 McGee vanished from the Lakers’ rotation as the playoffs wore on after starting 68 games for them in the regular season. He played well enough to earn a bigger deal than the $4.2 million player option he has for next season, but the lack of minutes in the postseason may hurt his market. At 32, it’s also hard to envision him scoring a multi-year deal.
As with several of the other bigs in this tier, McGee is accomplished as a lob threat and shot-blocker but less so in terms of spacing the floor and defending above the 3-point line. He’s likely looking at a 20-minute role in some team’s center rotation, whether it’s back in L.A. or in a new uniform. His opt-out decision will be a tough one in terms of money, but he’d be hard-pressed to find a better basketball situation than his current one.
Enes Kanter (PO), Boston — $5,641,787 Kanter has a player option for $5.0 million, and this valuation says he has one of the more interesting decisions of any player this offseason. Adding to the complexity: If Kanter does opt-in he’s likely to be traded because of the Celtics’ luxury tax situation and will have little control over his destination. It’s possible he’d rather pick his team than have the Celtics do it for him, and gamble that he can get roughly the same money either way.
Kanter’s rough and tumble game probably fits better on a team that needs his offense more than the Celtics do. He’s one of the few players so good at scoring on the block for post-ups to be valuable, and he’s a monstrous offensive rebounder. The tricky part is how to hide him on defense, where he is slow-footed defending pick-and-rolls and struggles to protect the rim. Those limitations have pushed him out of playoff games in recent years and may limit his market too.
Serge Ibaka — $5,521,235 Subjectively, this number is low and I expect Ibaka’s next contract to come in around the MLE or a bit more. Why is it just $5.5 million? As with Harrell above, the market for centers in general isn’t that rosy. Also, while the eye test said Ibaka had a pretty solid year in 2019-20, bumping his scoring rate and hitting 38.5 percent from 3, his advanced numbers were more skeptical. Ibaka’s on-off numbers were the worst of any of the nine Raptors with at least 1,000 minutes, and by a pretty wide margin. That didn’t help his case.
Combine that with his age (31 this coming season) and the fact he mostly plays the league’s most replaceable position (94 percent of his minutes were at center, according to Cleaning the Glass), and he projects at a much lower valuation than his brand name might suggest.
Nikola Milutinov, CSKA Moscow The Spurs still own the rights to the 25-year-old seven-footer after selecting him late in the first round in 2015. He’s since emerged as one of the best bigs in Europe, albeit with a game firmly rooted in the 1990s that may not translate as well across the pond. Think of him as a high-end backup center type who would make sense in the $5 million range. Also, note that he is not bound by the rookie salary scale for first-rounders because the Spurs drafted him more than three years ago.
Isaiah Hartenstein — $3,693,329 This number is on the high side, a result of BORG evaluating Hartenstein on some pretty small minutes samples over the past two seasons. Nonetheless, the league’s bottom feeders should be doing their homework on this guy. Hartenstein is only 22, remains 2-way eligible, and murdered the G League during his 14-game stint there last season. I’d be interested to see how he fares in an offensive role that went beyond “watch James Harden and dunk when he passes it to you.”
I’d like him more if he could shoot, but that part may not come around. Hartenstein also struggles on defense and his awkward hunched-over posture doesn’t help him with the eye test. Nonetheless, there should be a role for him someplace.
Mason Plumlee — $3,344,137 Plumlee still has his uses, but he’s looking at a major pay cut from the $14 million he made a year ago. Plumlee can’t shoot, struggles from the free-throw line, and has a maddening tendency to call his own number on post-ups. However, he’s a useful reserve because he remains an athletic lob threat even at age 30, and he’s a good passer and ballhandler. Defensively his size and mobility are a plus but he can be his own worst enemy rushing into mistakes, such as the play where he lost Antony Davis at the end of Game 2 of the conference finals.
Overall, I think this number is perhaps a shade low and that he’s more likely to get the room exception (about $5 million). Given the juggling Denver will need to do to remain below the tax level, I’m not sure that payday is coming from the Nuggets.
Dwight Howard — $3,137,516 Howard played his part to a tee for the champs last season, providing an energy defender, occasional roller, and frequent troller. With limited minutes Howard made sure he got his licks in, committing an eye-popping 8.1 fouls per 100 possessions. He’s 35 and his offensive game is now extremely limited because he’s lost so much leaping ability, but he still moves well laterally and books up and down the court in short-minute bursts.
Alex Len — $3,067,904 Len struggled in 2019-20 after a strong 2018-19 campaign, but he’s huge, rebounds well, and converts lobs and passes around the rim. He’s not a super athlete and has to play drop coverage, and his efforts to develop a 3-point game have been halting. At 27, however, there still is some tread left on these tires.
Skal Labissiere (R), Atlanta — $2,930,540 Acquired from Portland in a trade deadline salary dump, Labissiere nonetheless may have a future in Atlanta. The Hawks likely will decline to give Labissiere a $3.5 million qualifying offer, especially with two other expensive centers on their books, but can bring him back on a minimum deal and see if the 24-year-old Haitian can find a home on his third team.
Labissiere is a soft defensive presence but proved an accurate mid-range shooter with a soft touch when pressed into service in Portland, making 58 percent of his long 2s; extending that range to the 3-point line could unlock a lot more value.
Ante Zizic — $2,877,801 Zizic’s age (23) helps him grade out as a slightly-better-than-minimum option at the center spot via BORD$, but in reality, I doubt he’ll be back in the NBA. He’s a good rebounder who plays hard and can shoot from short range, but a defensive liability and not a floor-spacer. He only played 22 games last season after the Cavs declined his fourth-year option. I’d expect him to return to Europe.
Cheick Diallo (T), Phoenix — $2,705,142 The Suns will likely decline Diallo’s affordable $1.8 million option for next season to open up more cap space, but he could easily be back in Phoenix on another minimum deal. The 24-year-old is badly undersized for the middle at 6-8, 219, but has become a good short-to-mid range shooter who could really up his value by extending the range to the 3-point line. Doing so would also make him more viable at the 4, which is a much better fit for him at his size.
Tier 5: Minimum guys ($2.6M or less)
Note: I did not include a dollar figure in this tier, as at this level all their contracts are proscribed by the league minimum contract rules. If you really want to understand the concept of replacement level and why the valuations on the centers above might seem low, just look at the list below. All these guys projected as at or below replacement level for an NBA center this year, even though several appeared to be reasonably effective. The bar is just higher at the 5.
Harry Giles Giles has become a hot conversation topic in free-agency circles despite a very ordinary resume to date, and I do expect a team to take the plunge on him at a price above the minimum salary. The Kings declined his fourth-year option but could still bring him back at a salary up to $3,976,510, and with new management in Sacramento it’s possible they go that route.
I would have trouble seeing them get outbid, but I suppose it’s possible. Giles is just 22 and was an elite player as a teenager before a series of injuries sapped some athleticism. He is a good passer from the elbows but his narrowish frame is slightly undersized at center; however, he’s almost forced to pay there by his limited shooting range and somewhat stiff movement.
Also, there’s the little matter of the fouls. Giles committed 8.7 fouls per 100 possessions last season, an obscenely high rate that led all players with at least 500 minutes played.
Giles’s injury history also is scary, although at his likely price it’s much less of a concern. I only listed one-year value here, but Giles makes a good flier on a multi-year, low-dollar deal for a rebuilding team with some leftover money.
Aron Baynes Subjectively I like Baynes better than several of the names just above him. It’s a surprise to see Baynes down here given how well he played early in the season for Phoenix, and overall this still might have been his best statistical season.
But I can see the other side of the argument, too. Baynes’s play really tailed off the second half of the year and the Suns played their best basketball once he was out of the lineup. That last part is perhaps unfair — it’s not his fault the other dudes caught fire — but the deeper you dig on Baynes the iffier his resume looks.
Let’s start with the positive: He made shots. Baynes shot 35.1 percent on his goofy-looking push 3s, and 58.2 percent inside the arc, and shot enough to tally 24.4 points per 100 possessions. That’s really good for a center, although one can fairly question whether that 3-point rate is sustainable.
Nonetheless, neither PI-PM nor Raptor saw him as a notably impactful offensive player, and defensively he struggled to make an impact. Baynes saw both his rebound and block rates dip sharply at age 33, and also had a sky-high foul rate (7.2 per 100).
Overall, BORG saw him as slightly better than a minimum player a year ago, but with the age adjustment for 2020-21 he’s with the minimum guys. Too harsh? Perhaps. Certainly, somebody in need of a center will sign him, likely with a chunk of exception money.
John Henson Of the bigs likely to be available with the one-year minimum, I like Henson the best. He’s pretty mobile despite pushing 30, and his lack of muscle in the middle is increasingly becoming less of a concern because of how the league has changed. His defensive metrics last season were very good while toiling in anonymity for two terrible teams last year, including a high block rate.
Offensively Henson is no perimeter threat but is still long and bouncy enough to shoot 78.5 percent at the rim last year and he has a pretty effective jump hook game against switches. I wouldn’t go crazy here, but I’d be pretty okay with him as my fifth big.
Tristan Thompson Thompson averaged a double-double last year, believe it or not, but it’s hard to look at his year and say he was truly productive with a 51.8 percent 2-point shooting percentage and a jump in turnovers. The one thing he still does in bunches is grab rebounds, yanking down 18.6 percent of missed shots last season. Defensively he’s unspectacular, although he did boost his block rate last season. Overall I’d lump him in with Henson at the top of my minimum contract center pool.
Drew Eubanks (R), San Antonio Eubanks gave the Spurs some good minutes in the bubble, including an impactful performance against New Orleans that inspired me to
write a mini-ode to his play.
Bigger picture, the Spurs’ 2-way is ready to sign a deal for a full roster spot and likely deserves one after his 2019-20 performance. He’s a bit undersized for a center at 6-9 and doesn’t have any shooting range, but has enough explosion around the basket to rim run effectively and is capable of playing solid drop coverage as a rim protector. At 23, there’s still hope for more.
Noah Vonleh It seems like he’s been around forever but Vonleh is just 25 and he still teases with the idea that he might put it all together. While cycling through six different teams, Vonleh at various times has flashed ballhandling skill, some 3-point capability, plus rebounding, and switchability, but never for very long and never all at the same time.
If I were a rebuilding team, I still might be tempted to bring him on a minimum flier. His last two seasons were roughly replacement level, and hints remain that he might deliver something better in the future.
Kyle Alexander (R), Miami Miami’s 2-way was one of the best players in the G League and could be the next player to break out in the Heat’s Sioux Falls-NBA pipeline. A bouncy, skinny rim runner who played just 14 NBA minutes last season, Alexander probably comes back on another 2-way or a minimum deal.
Donta Hall Similar to Alexander above — his frequent rival over four years of Alabama-Tennessee games in the SEC — Hall is an undersized 5 who dominated in the G League and is ready to take the next step up the ladder. Unlike Alexander, no team controls his rights, and he should be a target for rebuilding teams in need of frontcourt depth.
Willy Hernangomez When I watched him as a younger player in Spain, I always thought Hernangomez would eventually be able to make 3s as a pro, but it hasn’t happened yet. It needs to because the rest of his game isn’t quite good enough to stay in a rotation otherwise. Hernangomez rebounds, can score in the post, and has good footwork around the basket, but is a minus defender and makes way too many turnovers. At 26, time is running out.
Meyers Leonard Leonard actually started 49 games for Miami this year, albeit not very productively, before the Heat deep-sixed him in the playoffs. His biggest selling point, by far, is a 39.0 percent career mark on 3s, including 41.4 percent last season. While it’s a low release and he has to be completely set, that weapon gives him some offensive value. Leonard can also fly down the lane for the occasional dunk, but rim running isn’t his specialty.
Defensively, his game is much more suspect, with poor rebound and block rates and little capability to guard beyond the 3-point line. He still belongs in the league and would be a sensible target as a third center on a minimum deal, especially for teams who can periodically weaponize his shooting in the right matchup.
Mike Muscala (PO), Oklahoma City Muscala has a player option for $2.2 million, which is just the minimum, but I can’t imagine a scenario where he does any better than that after he fell out of the Thunder’s big man rotation this season.
Thon Maker Maker becomes an interesting proposition if he can convert 3s closer to a 40 percent clip. At 34.4 percent for his career, however, there’s nothing to see here. He offers some intriguing switchability at the defensive end and has a plus motor, but he doesn’t have enough muscle to score near the basket and he fouls in bunches as a result of his strength disadvantage.
Udonis Haslem Not a lot to discuss here in terms of basketball since he never plays, but one presumes he’ll be back in his role as a glorified assistant coach with Miami.
Moses Brown (R), Portland The Blazers’ raw 2-way only played NBA 35 minutes but managed to swat five shots in that time. He put up some impressive stats in the G League as a 20-year-old, although the fact he had just five assists in 30 games is a bit troubling. I’d expect him to be back on another two-way or a minimum deal in Portland’s player development incubator.
Bismack Biyombo Biyombo has lost a bit off bounce the past few years so his rebounding and shot-blocking aren’t quite in the elite territory of his early-mid 20s. Which is unfortunate, because his offensive contribution is near-zero as a non-shooter without much in the way of ball skills. He still could figure into the equation next year if a team needs a third center.
Ian Mahinmi Like a lot of the centers on this list, Mahinmi offers decent mobility and plus shot-blocking but just doesn’t pack enough offensive punch for the way teams play in 2020. He turns 34 in early November and may have a difficult time procuring even a minimum deal.
Damian Jones, (R), Atlanta Somehow started more than 20 games each of the past two seasons. I’m guessing there won’t be a three-peat. I have no expectation that the Hawks will give him a qualifying offer or make any other effort to retain him, as they basically replaced him with Clint Capela and Dewayne Dedmon at the trade deadline and likely will keep Skal Labissiere above as the third center.
Jones actually cut his turnover rate last season and scored pretty efficiently around the basket, but despite being big and fairly athletic he is weirdly awful at rebounding (just 12.5 percent Rebound Rate in 2019-20) and inconsistent at best on defense. No longer 2-way eligible, he’ll likely have to rebuild his stock in the G League and hope for a 10-day.
Jahlil Okafor Came to the NBA in the wrong century. Okafor can get buckets on the low block, but nobody wants to post up anymore and he’s far too limited in the other phases of the game —particularly defensively—to warrant a significant role.
Kyle O’Quinn Physical, high-IQ guy who is popular in the locker room, but he’s 30 and lost his job to Norvell Pelle last year. O’Quinn’s lack of offensive mojo in particular (just 15.8 points per 100 last year) likely limits his attractiveness.
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